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March/2020 | Published by: LUÍS FELIPE PELLON

DECISIVE WEEK

According to infectologists, this week from March 30 to April 6 will be decisive in combating the epidemic. It will be when the disease will manifest itself in those infected the week before the beginning of the confinement, when the possibility of contagion will be greater. It will also be when hospitals will pass the first major stress test. In this phase, also, it will be when it will be possible to correctly evaluate the effectiveness of the cocktail of drugs (hydroxychloroquine + azithromycin) in which there is great hope. Any decision to relax the rules of social isolation will have to wait this week before, in view of the results, to decide what will be better next. However, on Saturday, the Minister of Health exposed a graph demonstrating that the evolution of the epidemic in Brazil is below that observed in European countries, if the criterion of 15 days after the 100th case is used. The Ministry of Health attributed this to the fact that we started social isolation before other countries; added to certain Brazilian peculiarities, such as temperature, humidity and population profile, with a preponderance of the youngest (below 60 years). This fact demonstrates that, at least until now, the strategy to fight the epidemic has been successful, although it is known that the level of underreporting is very high.

 

So stay still at home to save time, delaying the evolution and spread of the epidemic as much as possible, while state, municipal and federal governments organize themselves, setting up field hospitals and buying respirators, medicines and personal protective equipment for the brave doctors. and paramedics who look after us. We were all taken aback by this pandemic, something unimaginable and unprecedented in the modern world, which made it difficult not only to prevent, but also to make decisions; since there are no parameters to follow. In this way, the crisis is being managed dynamically, day by day, and it will still take a long time to be resolved. Perhaps only with the arrival of a vaccine. However, think that, like everything in life, it could be much worse, if we did not have internet, cell phones, computers and modern video conferencing and teleworking software, or even potent antibiotics and penicillin. Just search the internet for Spanish flu and see that we could be subjected to a much greater horror than what we are experiencing.

 

In view of this, our team will remain in the home office until then, serving our customers without any loss of efficiency or quality, since we have the entire technological apparatus of our Office remotely at our disposal, thanks to the successful effort of our team. of IT that, in record time, organized the contingency of our activities. Finished this week, we will evaluate what to do, in line with what is decided by the authorities.

 

However, make no mistake. We don’t know when yet, but the country certainly needs to resume its activities as soon as possible. In complete safety, of course, and in particular preserving groups at risk. No country can stand two months totally stopped, much less Brazil, with a huge percentage of the population working in the informal sector, where interpersonal contact is essential. On the other hand, the services sector is predominant in modern economies, representing about 70% (seventy percent) of GDP, and it is not in a home office system that it will be able to survive. We are already approaching the moment when the survival needs of a substantial portion of the population can give rise to looting and all types of violence. So this is a discussion that has to start now, without subterfuge or false claims, given that it will be very difficult decisions and that many people will die, one way or another, especially the elderly. Although in a different scenario, like science fiction, the situation is war, yes, and decisions have to take this into account.

 

There will be no comfortable way out of this crisis. The country will take a long time, perhaps years, to recover. Remember, we were trying to get out of a serious economic crisis before this! We are going to become impoverished and very cheap for the world of hard currency, which will possibly imply the denationalization of several companies, as well as the advance coming from abroad on certain activities of the service sector in our country. Advocacy can be one of them.

On the other hand, the facilities offered by the digital world had a huge increase and acceptance during this crisis. In fact, they saved our lives! We all work, eat, communicate and move our bank accounts through applications, experiencing, out of sheer necessity, things that until then were unknown to many. Essential services like electricity, gas, water, telephony and transportation could be kept operational! This is here to stay! The world will be different starting in April. From there, physical facilities (banks, restaurants, supermarkets, commerce and services in general) will be dismantled and replaced by powerful digital platforms. Teleworking will be normal and unemployment, which was already high, will increase!

So, focus on your business, work with the options that you have and that are offered to you by the government for this time of crisis. And remember: you are not alone! We are here to help you in whatever is necessary and possible, as we have always done throughout our partnership, striving for a common goal of staying alive and active in the market and relevant to our customers.

 

Good luck and health to everyone!

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